1. Home
  2. Stories
  3. Economy
  4. Development

Uganda gets positive IMF growth projection

Peter 23rd Oct, 2024 Economy Business Edge Reporter
Uganda gets positive IMF growth projection

The IMF Headquarters in New York, USA.


The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has painted a positive picture of Uganda’s economic growth prospects, posting a 5.9% growth projection, according to the latest World Economic Outlook report, which is above the average of 4.2% for Sub-Saharan Africa.

On another positive note, the IMF says Uganda’s annual inflation has dropped from 5.3% in 2023 to 3.4% in 2024, lower than Kenya’s 5.1% and Rwanda’s 4.9%.

However, Uganda’s revenue performance as a percentage of GDP is still the lowest in the region - standing at about 14.8%, compared to Burundi’s 23%, Rwanda’s 22.6%, Kenya’s 17.5%, and Tanzania’s 16%.

  • According to the IMF, Uganda has navigated the post pandemic for recovery well due to “sound macroeconomic policies.”

The economic recovery is strengthening with low inflation, favorable agricultural production, and strong industrial and services activity. While public debt is sustainable, low tax revenues constrain Uganda’s fiscal policy space.

Strengthening domestic revenue mobilization and budgetary and cash management practices are key to securing a durable fiscal space. The Bank of Uganda’s tight monetary policy stance has helped anchor inflation expectations and counter external sector pressures.

  • At their IMF Caucus meeting in New York on October 22, Finance Ministers from African countries noted that geopolitical fragmentation, elevated borrowing costs, and the ongoing high cost of living are creating a challenging backdrop for policy making on the continent.

Wale Edun, Nigeria’s Minister of Finance and Chair of the African Caucus, and Kristalina Georgieva, Managing Director of the IMF), said in a press statement that some countries are also facing social instability and insecurity which imposes heavy human costs on populations while also undermining growth prospects and exacerbating economic vulnerabilities.

“Renewed focus on enhancing domestic resource mobilization is critical and it should be supported by governance reforms to improve public financial management, fiscal transparency, and enhance accountability. We welcome the launch of the Joint Domestic Resource Mobilization Initiative (JDRMI) by the IMF and World Bank which seeks to improve domestic revenue mobilization, enhance spending efficiency, and develop domestic financial markets,” they said.

Generally, the IMF report shows that global growth is expected to remain stable yet underwhelming, with risks to the global outlook tilted to the downside amid elevated policy uncertainty.

In several regions, disruptions to production and shipping of commodities—especially oil—conflicts, civil unrest, and extreme weather events have led to downward revisions to the outlook for the Middle East and Central Asia and that for sub-Saharan Africa.

  • However, despite the good news on inflation, downside risks are increasing and now dominate the outlook. An escalation in regional conflicts, especially in the Middle East, could pose serious risks for commodity markets. Shifts toward undesirable trade and industrial policies can significantly lower output relative to our baseline forecast.
  • Monetary policy could remain too tight for too long, and global financial conditions could tighten abruptly.

Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, the IMF Economic counsellor, suggested in a blog that the global battle against inflation has largely been won, even though price pressures persist in some countries. After peaking at 9.4% year-over-year in the third quarter of 2022, headline inflation rates are now projected to reach 3.5% by the end of 2025, below the average level of 3.6% between 2000 and 2019.

But whereas the global decline in inflation is a major mile stone, downside risks are rising and now dominate the outlook: an escalation in regional conflicts, monetary policy remaining tight for too long, a possible resurgence of financial market volatility with adverse effects on sovereign debt markets.

The report also shows that change in global monetary conditions is easing the pressure on emerging market economies, but that much more needs to be done to improve growth prospects and lift productivity, as this is the only way we can address the many challenges we face: rebuilding fiscal buffers, aging and declining populations in many parts of the world, young and growing populations in Africa in search of opportunity, tackling the climate transition, increasing resilience, and improving the lives of the most vulnerable, within and across countries.

Similar Posts You May Like 

  • DTB SCOOPS THE MOST INNOVATIVE BANCASSURANCE AGENT 2022 AWARD

    DTB SCOOPS THE MOST INNOVATIVE BANCASSURANCE AGENT 2022 AWARD..

    Diamond Trust Bank – DTB has been named the Most Innovative Bancassurance Agent in Uganda for the year 2022 at the prestigious Insurance Innovations Award -2022 held that the Kampala Serena Hotel. DTB was voted the most innovative Bancassurance Agent because of its innovation in the use of Digit..

  • MTN Uganda delivers on promise to President Yoweri Museveni, successfully mobilizes South African investors to invest in Uganda

    MTN Uganda delivers on promise to President Yoweri Museveni, successfully mo..

    Wednesday 6th September 2023. Kampala, Uganda. MTN Uganda has fulfilled President Yoweri Museveni's call to action, rallying South African investors to explore opportunities in Uganda. This remarkable achievement follows the successful conclusion of the second leg of the Uganda-South Africa summ..

  • President Yoweri Kaguta Museveni on Use ICT to Build Our Economy

    President Yoweri Kaguta Museveni on Use ICT to Build Our Economy..

    President Yoweri Kaguta Museveni has cautioned Ugandans against using Information And Communications Technology (ICT) to promote importation of goods. President Museveni said Ugandans should use ICT to promote the buying of goods and services within Uganda or promote selling to outsiders but not vic..

  • There is a ready market, Museveni assures Foreign Investors

    There is a ready market, Museveni assures Foreign Investors..

    President Yoweri Kaguta Museveni has wooed foreign investors to invest in Uganda, saying that the East African country has a lot of investment opportunities with a readily available market...

  • Uganda Listed Among Top Kyeyo Cash Recipients

    Uganda Listed Among Top Kyeyo Cash Recipients..

    A new report by the World Bank has shown that Uganda is among the top ten recipients of money from nationals working abroad, commonly referred to as 'kyeyo' cash, in Sub-Saharan Africa...

  • President Museveni Takes Over Chairmanship Of G77 + China

    President Museveni Takes Over Chairmanship Of G77 + China..

    Uganda has assumed the chairmanship of the Group of 77 plus China (G77+China)...

  • URA tasked to sensitise traders on how Electronic Fiscal Receipting and Invoicing Solution (EFRIS) works to avoid demonstrations.

    URA tasked to sensitise traders on how Electronic Fiscal Receipting and Invo..

    In January 2021, URA implemented EFRIS to tackle tax administration issues associated with business transactions and receipt issuance...

  • UBL sets up UGX20 billion cleaning facility

    UBL sets up UGX20 billion cleaning facility ..

    Uganda Breweries Limited, the maker of Tusker and Guinness, has commissioned a state-of-the-art effluent treatment plant, which officials said marks a significant milestone in the company's commitment to sustainability and reducing its carbon footprint...

  • Physical planners' body warns on quacks as new Council is elected

    Physical planners' body warns on quacks as new Council is elected..

    Members of the Society of Professional Physical Planners of Uganda have elected new leaders as the government moves in to crackdown on imposters in the physical planning field...

  • URA now to deploy drones in smuggling fight

    URA now to deploy drones in smuggling fight..

    The Uganda Revenue Authority (URA) has said they are to invest in surveillance drones at porous border points in an effort to curb the vice of smuggling. ..

  • Economic uncertainty as Uganda’s credit rating is downgraded

    Economic uncertainty as Uganda’s credit rating is downgraded..

    Global credit rating agency Moody’s Ratings has downgraded Uganda’s long-term foreign-currency and local-currency issuer ratings to B3 from B2, a development that implies that going forward Uganda’s bonds would be less attractive to international investors and the government would have to borr..

  • Address drivers of rising national debt - experts

    Address drivers of rising national debt - experts..

    Uganda’s debt risks are becoming more pronounced both in the short to medium term, largely attributed to poor debt utilization as one of the key causes of the nation's mounting public debt stock...

  • Tomatoes, vegetables push inflation to 3.6%

    Tomatoes, vegetables push inflation to 3.6%..

    The escalating prices of tomatoes and fresh vegetables have been the primary drivers behind the rise in headline inflation rate in May. ..

  • BoU maintains CBR at 10.25% as inflationary pressures persist

    BoU maintains CBR at 10.25% as inflationary pressures persist..

    Bank of Uganda has kept its key rate unchanged at 10.25% in June unlike in the previous month when it was raised from 10%, which was prompted by rising inflation and significant depreciation of the Ugandan shilling against major currencies...

  • Uganda acquires $500m loan from S.Korea

    Uganda acquires $500m loan from S.Korea..

    Uganda has signed an agreement with South Korea for a $500 million loan to help finance infrastructure building in the east African country, Uganda's finance ministry has said...

  • Survey shows private sector improvement in May

    Survey shows private sector improvement in May..

    The month of May saw a further improvement in the private sector’s performance, according the Stanbic Bank Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI). ..

  • Stop budgeting for corruption, CSOs tell MPs

    Stop budgeting for corruption, CSOs tell MPs..

    In a stirring call to action, Civil Society Organizations (CSOs) want Members of Parliament to eliminate budget allocations that enable corruption. ..

  • Museveni sets up outfit to fight URA corruption

    Museveni sets up outfit to fight URA corruption..

    President Yoweri Museveni has set up a new unit at State House, aimed at keeping an eye on Uganda Revenue Authority and curb corruption in the tax administration system...

  • EU, Enabel boost refugees with vocational skills

    EU, Enabel boost refugees with vocational skills..

    More than 5,000 youth in refugee communities in the West Nile Region have been passed out after receiving vocational skills aimed at boosting their self-employment opportunities and household incomes. ..

  • Planning Authority warns on surging population

    Planning Authority warns on surging population..

    The National Planning Authority has expressed concern about Uganda’s population, which has surged by 11.3 million since the last census...

  • Uganda boosts diplomatic, trade ties with France

    Uganda boosts diplomatic, trade ties with France..

    The Deputy Speaker of Parliament, Thomas Tayebwa, has hailed the cooperation between Uganda and France in the areas of trade, investment and diplomatic relations as a formidable uniting factor that ought to be fostered for further growth...

  • IMF projects modest global growth amid persistent inflation

    IMF projects modest global growth amid persistent inflation..

    The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has projected modest global economic growth over the next two years, driven by various regional dynamics, but cautioned about numerous risks that could derail this path. ..

  • Optimism as COMESA-EAC-SADC free trade area starts

    Optimism as COMESA-EAC-SADC free trade area starts..

    The COMESA-EAC-SADC Tripartite Free Trade Area (TFTA) Agreement officially came into force following ratification by the requisite number of member States. ..

  • Embassy of Norway to officially close next week

    Embassy of Norway to officially close next week..

    Ugandans are set to feel the pinch as of lost jobs and business services as the Norwegian Embassy in Kampala officially closes its doors next week on July 31. ..

  • Concern over fewer girls in vocational institutions

    Concern over fewer girls in vocational institutions..

    The low enrolment and completion rates for girls in Uganda’s Technical Vocational Education and Training (TVET) programmes should be a serious concern for policy makers and implementers, according to a new report. ..

  • Uganda nets UGX 80 billion from visa fees

    Uganda nets UGX 80 billion from visa fees..

    The Directorate of Citizenship and Immigration Control (DCIC) has reported a substantial increase in revenue from visa visa fees for the 2023/2024 fiscal year, totalling over UGX80 billion, up from UGX45 billion in the previous year. ..

  • Inflation hits highest level in 12 months

    Inflation hits highest level in 12 months..

    High cabbage, fish and Irish potatoes prices were the primary drivers of the 4% annual inflation in July, the Uganda Bureau of Statistics (UBOS) has indicated as per the July Consumer Price Index (CPI). ..

  • Optimism as Central Bank cuts key rate to 10%

    Optimism as Central Bank cuts key rate to 10%..

    The Bank of Uganda (BoU) has slashed the Central Bank Rate (CBR) by 25 basis points to 10%, a development that experts say would have significant implications for the banking sector and broader economic landscape in the country...

  • UBOS reports rise in August inflation

    UBOS reports rise in August inflation..

    The Uganda Bureau of Statistics (UBOS) has released the Consumer Price Indices and Inflation report for August 2024, highlighting a slight increase in monthly inflation and a noticeable rise in the prices of certain commodities, particularly mangoes and oranges. ..

  • Gov’t arrears threaten URA performance

    Gov’t arrears threaten URA performance..

    Uganda's revenue collection is facing a serious threat from the growing backlog of government arrears, which is straining the Uganda Revenue Authority’s (URA) ability to meet its targets. ..

  • Amongi drops Dr. Kimbowa from NSSF Board

    Amongi drops Dr. Kimbowa from NSSF Board..

    Gender, Labour and Social Development Minister Betty Amongi has appointed David Ogong as the new chairperson of the new Board of Directors for the National Social Security Fund (NSSF), replacing Peter Kimbowa whose contract was not renewed...

  • 2025/26 budget strategy to focus on four pivotal sectors

    2025/26 budget strategy to focus on four pivotal sectors ..

    The Government is outlining an ambitious strategy for the 2025/2026 fiscal year, aimed at steering the country towards a fully monetized and formalized economy...

  • URA exceeds August target by UGX27 billion

    URA exceeds August target by UGX27 billion ..

    The Uganda Revenue Authority (URA) has reported an impressive performance for August, with revenue collections surpassing the set target. ..

  • IMF cautions Ugandan banks over treasury bonds

    IMF cautions Ugandan banks over treasury bonds..

    In a new report, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has warned commercial banks against overreliance on Government securities saying it raises serious financial concerns for the country’s economy...

  • Anxiety as donor aid taps shrink further

    Anxiety as donor aid taps shrink further..

    During the recent presentation of the Budget Strategy for the Financial Year 2025/2026, officials from the Ministry of Finance, Planning and Economic Development warned that dwindling external financing down by approximately 30% from UGX 4.4 trillion (about $1.2 billion) in 2022 to an estimated UGX3..

  • EADB launches UGX68 bn fund for Ugandan SMEs

    EADB launches UGX68 bn fund for Ugandan SMEs..

    The East African Development Bank (EADB), the region’s leading development financial institution, has launched a new $15 million (about UGX68 billion) fund to support the growth of 1,500 rural-based Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs) in Uganda. ..

  • Charcoal hikes September inflation by 0.2%

    Charcoal hikes September inflation by 0.2%..

    Uganda experienced a notable increase in inflation in September 2024, as headline inflation rate soared by 0.2%, consistent with the previous month. ..

  • EADB gets positive credit ratings review

    EADB gets positive credit ratings review..

    The East African Development Bank's (EADB), the region’s premier development financial institution, has received positive credit results from a review of its credit ratings, raising hopes that borrowers would continue to borrow at more favourable interest rates...

  • BoU slashes key rate to 9.75% from 10.25%

    BoU slashes key rate to 9.75% from 10.25%..

    The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the Bank of Uganda has announced a significant reduction in the Central Bank Rate (CBR), lowering it by 25 basis points to 9.75%. ..

  • Optimism as national economy registers 6.6% growth

    Optimism as national economy registers 6.6% growth..

    Optimism as national economy registers 6.6% growth..

  • Optimism as Uganda nears full BRICS nod

    Optimism as Uganda nears full BRICS nod..

    Uganda has become one of the two African countries that have been admitted into the BRICS alliance in the category of ‘partner states.’..

  • US election: Africa hoping for the better

    US election: Africa hoping for the better..

    Voters in the United States today go to the polls to choose the 47th president of what is the world’s largest economic and military superpower, in an election that is not only tight in the US, but is also being closely watched around the world, including Africa...

  • Likely implications of Trump return for Africa

    Likely implications of Trump return for Africa ..

    Across Africa, Donald Trump’s forth-coming second term holds various implications for the continent and its development agenda. The United States remains an important partner in Africa’s growth. Through initiatives like the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) and the Millennium Challenge C..

Most Recent

Popular Links