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Planning Authority warns on surging population

BE Editor 8th Jul, 2024 Economy Pedson Mumbere
Planning Authority warns on surging population

A group of Ugandan siblings at their home. Planners are worried that Uganda's high fertility rate is unsustainable.


The National Planning Authority has expressed concern about Uganda’s population, which has surged by 11.3 million since the last census.

According to the preliminary results of the 2024 National Census released by the Uganda Bureau of Statistics (UBOS), recently, Uganda’s population has reached a significant milestone of 45.9 million, a notable increase from the 34.8 million reported in the 2014 census.

According to the preliminary released by UBOS, 50.5% of the population comprises children aged 0–17 years, while 5% are elderly individuals aged 60 and above. This implies that the majority of Uganda’s population comprises of mostly dependents.

  • This demographic shift is stirring discussions about the implications for the nation’s future and the urgent need for effective management of resources.

Joseph Muvawala, the Executive Director of the National Planning Authority (NPA), describes the census numbers as “worrying” and more so given the rampant misappropriation of public resources.

“There is no need to worry about the increase of 11 million people,” Muvawala stated in a phone interview. “The bigger issue at hand is the mismanagement of government resources, which complicates national budgeting efforts.”

  • The NPA serves as a central institution in Uganda's development landscape, providing strategic direction, coordination, and oversight to ensure sustainable and inclusive socio-economic development across the country.

For example, the NPA is responsible for formulating long-term and medium-term national development plans (NDPs). These plans outline the country's development priorities, strategies, and goals over specified periods, typically five years.

Muvawala joins a chorus of growing concerns over corruption and its impact on national development and the prospects for the country’s future. He says addressing corruption is paramount for effective governance and resource management. “It’s high time we tackle corruption head-on,” he stresses. “We must ensure that resources are used efficiently to meet the needs of our growing population.”

Uganda still has one of the highest fertility rates in the world, with an average of around five children per woman – higher than the African average of 4.4 children and the global average of about 2.5 children per woman.

Globally, fertility rates are registering a declining trend as countries undergo economic development and societal changes. The factors contributing to this decline include increased access to education and employment opportunities for women, urbanization, greater availability of health services and family planning services, and cultural shifts towards smaller family sizes.

  • Of course, President Yoweri Museveni, who officially launched the preliminary census results, himself long-term advocate of a bigger population, expressed surprise at the population figures. “I had anticipated that our population might be around 48 or 49 million,” Museveni said. “It was surprising to learn that it is actually just below 46 million.”
  • However, as the planning experts argue, Uganda is grappling with the new demographic challenges and the focus is shifting towards how best to manage the increased population and ensure that government resources are allocated and utilized effectively.

The significant rise in population underscores the need for robust and transparent budgeting processes to support sustainable development and address the challenges posed by both natural growth and the influx of refugees.

The NPA’s call for better management of resources and for a stronger stance against corruption highlights a critical juncture for Uganda’s future generation. As the country moves forward, the effectiveness of these measures will be crucial in shaping the nation’s trajectory for a better future for its posterity.

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